Most people know that if you can get yourself into a position where you can abuse the bubble, it can be very profitable. A great setup might be something like: utg has 1200 chips, hero on the button has 7300, SB has 2500, and BB has 2500 with blinds 200/400 a25 (all stacks are before blinds/antes are posted, and have Poker Stars blind levels). If utg folds, then Hero should push any two cards (there could be an argument that hero should get cute and do something besides push if he has a monster hand but that's not really the focus of this post). SB and BB will have to fold anything but a very strong hand because of the small stack in utg, and hero's push generates instant profit.
This is a very important sng concept, and most decent players are aware of it. A trickier question is how hard you should try to get yourself into that position in the first place.
For example, suppose you are in this scenario on the bubble: utg 2900, hero (button) 4200, SB 3800, BB 2600 with blinds 300/600 a50. If utg folds, hero should push a very wide range of hands, probably any two. It's obviously player-dependent - if SB is a total maniac who will call a push with A5 then hero needs to play much more conservatively, but against normal opponents at the $60 and $114 levels on Stars, hero should push any two or close to it.
It's a profitable push right now, and the best part is that it will set up another very profitable push next hand, assuming the steal goes as planned. Next hand the stacks will be: hero (utg) 5250, button 3450, SB 1950, BB 2850, and once again there isn't anyone lurking to pick off hero's push with a marginal hand. If hero's utg steal is successful then the stacks will be: utg 3400, button 1600, SB 2200, hero (BB) 6300. At this point, a great thing happens: utg doesn't want to push with two small stacks alive, button will only push a decent hand because he knows that hero (BB) will call with a very wide range getting great pot odds, and SB will also need a strong hand to play because he knows that the button is already short-stacked and will have to pay blinds before he does. So with this kind of stack configuration, hero often gets a walk in the BB, which is great for the free chips and also because it means that the bubble will continue.
So the original chip distribution of utg 2900, hero (button) 4200, SB 3800, BB 2600 with blinds 300/600 a50 is an example where hero should be willing to make a risky push because if the first push works then hero has a great chance to collect a ton of chips with little risk.
Now let's look at one where the chip position will dictate that hero has to play more conservatively: hero (utg) 4500, button 5500, SB 2000, BB 1500, and the blinds are 200/400 a25. Here it looks hero might have a chance to slip past button into the chip lead and then start abusing the bubble, but the risk outweighs the reward. First, recognize what a disaster it is for hero to push and lose to button on his first push. Also, even if hero is able to steal this hand successfully, he is far from being able to abuse the bubble, especially with the big stack sitting to his left. Next hand he'll be on the BB and the odds are high that someone will steal from him, thwarting his progress. If it's the other big stack, then truly no progress will have been made.
Even if everything goes perfectly and hero steals this hand and gets a walk in the BB on the following hand, then hero will have only a tiny chip lead on the other big stack, and the shortest stack will be so short that bubble will likely end before hero is able to extend that lead and really use it to his advantage. There is also the risk the blinds will go up and leave a blind pot committed to the extent that hero cannot steal without a hand that is at least decent. In this position of: hero (utg) 4500, button 5500, SB 2000, BB 1500, hero should steal with his good hands but if he doesn't have much he should just fold. He'll probably wind up bleeding a few chips while he waits for a short stack to bust, but sometimes that's a necessary evil. If the short stacks pick up some chips and hero dwindles, then he may have to ramp up the aggression to stay alive.
So far we've been looking at situations where the stacks are short compared to the blinds. Consider this: hero (utg) 4000, button 5500, sb 1600, bb 2400, with blinds 100/200. Poker Stars turbo sngs have five minute levels of 100/200, 100/200 a25, and then 200/400 a25. This means that hero has some time before the true bubble abuse will start, which generally cannot begin in earnest until 200/400 when the short stacks will be short enough that the others will just try to wait the shorty out. If the big stack is a good player, or against an aggressive player (regardless of whether she is good), hero will usually have to just sit back and wait and play conservatively. The reason is that if hero raises a pot then button can reraise or call and make hero's life very difficult. Notice that button's stack is big enough that even doubling hero up will leave her very close to the other short stacks and in decent position to make the money.
But, if the button is a passive/bad player who will not use her stack to keep hero in check, then hero should take advantage of button's benevolence. Hero should be able to steal more than his fair share and will likely pull into the lead by the time the 200/400 level arrives. Button will then regret allowing this coup as hero steals his way into a solid chip lead by the time the game gets to three-handed. One thing to keep in mind when considering this kind of power play is that if you snag the chip lead from a napping big stack, you're likely going to have a very aggressive image. If the stacks are: utg 2900, hero (button) 4200, SB 3800, BB 2600 with blinds 300/600 a50, then you'd much rather have gotten the lead by busting the fifth player out rather than by stealing every pot at the 200/400 level.
As a final word of caution, you need to have some flexibility with regards to your cards. If you steal on the button with a marginal hand in order to try to pull into the lead, and then get dealt a real clunker like 52o next hand in utg, caution might be in order. Part of the reason is that you're likely to be in worse shape when called - against {77+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo}, 52o has 26.8% equity in the pot while Q6s has 31.2% - and image is another. When you double up a short stack on a steal gone wrong, it's a lot worse to have just been caught pushing 52o. An average player is not a great observor of the game, but it doesn't take too much to remember somebody pushing 52o, and you'll have opponents lining up around the block waiting to call you with KJ, which is going to make your life very difficult.
This is a very important sng concept, and most decent players are aware of it. A trickier question is how hard you should try to get yourself into that position in the first place.
For example, suppose you are in this scenario on the bubble: utg 2900, hero (button) 4200, SB 3800, BB 2600 with blinds 300/600 a50. If utg folds, hero should push a very wide range of hands, probably any two. It's obviously player-dependent - if SB is a total maniac who will call a push with A5 then hero needs to play much more conservatively, but against normal opponents at the $60 and $114 levels on Stars, hero should push any two or close to it.
It's a profitable push right now, and the best part is that it will set up another very profitable push next hand, assuming the steal goes as planned. Next hand the stacks will be: hero (utg) 5250, button 3450, SB 1950, BB 2850, and once again there isn't anyone lurking to pick off hero's push with a marginal hand. If hero's utg steal is successful then the stacks will be: utg 3400, button 1600, SB 2200, hero (BB) 6300. At this point, a great thing happens: utg doesn't want to push with two small stacks alive, button will only push a decent hand because he knows that hero (BB) will call with a very wide range getting great pot odds, and SB will also need a strong hand to play because he knows that the button is already short-stacked and will have to pay blinds before he does. So with this kind of stack configuration, hero often gets a walk in the BB, which is great for the free chips and also because it means that the bubble will continue.
So the original chip distribution of utg 2900, hero (button) 4200, SB 3800, BB 2600 with blinds 300/600 a50 is an example where hero should be willing to make a risky push because if the first push works then hero has a great chance to collect a ton of chips with little risk.
Now let's look at one where the chip position will dictate that hero has to play more conservatively: hero (utg) 4500, button 5500, SB 2000, BB 1500, and the blinds are 200/400 a25. Here it looks hero might have a chance to slip past button into the chip lead and then start abusing the bubble, but the risk outweighs the reward. First, recognize what a disaster it is for hero to push and lose to button on his first push. Also, even if hero is able to steal this hand successfully, he is far from being able to abuse the bubble, especially with the big stack sitting to his left. Next hand he'll be on the BB and the odds are high that someone will steal from him, thwarting his progress. If it's the other big stack, then truly no progress will have been made.
Even if everything goes perfectly and hero steals this hand and gets a walk in the BB on the following hand, then hero will have only a tiny chip lead on the other big stack, and the shortest stack will be so short that bubble will likely end before hero is able to extend that lead and really use it to his advantage. There is also the risk the blinds will go up and leave a blind pot committed to the extent that hero cannot steal without a hand that is at least decent. In this position of: hero (utg) 4500, button 5500, SB 2000, BB 1500, hero should steal with his good hands but if he doesn't have much he should just fold. He'll probably wind up bleeding a few chips while he waits for a short stack to bust, but sometimes that's a necessary evil. If the short stacks pick up some chips and hero dwindles, then he may have to ramp up the aggression to stay alive.
So far we've been looking at situations where the stacks are short compared to the blinds. Consider this: hero (utg) 4000, button 5500, sb 1600, bb 2400, with blinds 100/200. Poker Stars turbo sngs have five minute levels of 100/200, 100/200 a25, and then 200/400 a25. This means that hero has some time before the true bubble abuse will start, which generally cannot begin in earnest until 200/400 when the short stacks will be short enough that the others will just try to wait the shorty out. If the big stack is a good player, or against an aggressive player (regardless of whether she is good), hero will usually have to just sit back and wait and play conservatively. The reason is that if hero raises a pot then button can reraise or call and make hero's life very difficult. Notice that button's stack is big enough that even doubling hero up will leave her very close to the other short stacks and in decent position to make the money.
But, if the button is a passive/bad player who will not use her stack to keep hero in check, then hero should take advantage of button's benevolence. Hero should be able to steal more than his fair share and will likely pull into the lead by the time the 200/400 level arrives. Button will then regret allowing this coup as hero steals his way into a solid chip lead by the time the game gets to three-handed. One thing to keep in mind when considering this kind of power play is that if you snag the chip lead from a napping big stack, you're likely going to have a very aggressive image. If the stacks are: utg 2900, hero (button) 4200, SB 3800, BB 2600 with blinds 300/600 a50, then you'd much rather have gotten the lead by busting the fifth player out rather than by stealing every pot at the 200/400 level.
As a final word of caution, you need to have some flexibility with regards to your cards. If you steal on the button with a marginal hand in order to try to pull into the lead, and then get dealt a real clunker like 52o next hand in utg, caution might be in order. Part of the reason is that you're likely to be in worse shape when called - against {77+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo}, 52o has 26.8% equity in the pot while Q6s has 31.2% - and image is another. When you double up a short stack on a steal gone wrong, it's a lot worse to have just been caught pushing 52o. An average player is not a great observor of the game, but it doesn't take too much to remember somebody pushing 52o, and you'll have opponents lining up around the block waiting to call you with KJ, which is going to make your life very difficult.
posted by pokerschwab at 4:43 PM
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