Veepstakes
Ok, I'm trying to write this before I fall asleep at the keyboard, so don't heckle me too mercilessly if I haven't double-checked my facts.
Two favorites are emerging in each party in the veepstakes: Tim Kaine and Evan Bayh for the Democrats and Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty for the Republicans. Kaine is at 36.5% and Bayh is at 23% on intrade.com (Kathleen Sebelius and Joe Biden are not too far back in third and fourth). On the Republican side, Romney (35%) and Pawlenty (34%) are well ahead of the pack.
I would love to see Bayh win, but Kaine would not be terrible. Both are from key swing states, although Bayh is more popular in Indiana than Kaine is in Virginia. The knock against Kaine is the same as the one against Obama - inexperience. He was inaugurated as mayor of Richmond in 1998, lieutenant governor of Virginia in 2002, and governor of Virginia in 2005.
Bayh, on the other hand, was elected governor of Indiana in 1988 and senate in 1998. So he has a reasonable amount of experience, but he's still young and vital-looking enough to make McCain look really old by comparison. Neither one is perfect policy-wise (Bayh was a big fan of the war in Iraq, although he has since said going to war was a mistake and Kaine is pro-life), but I would prefer to see Bayh. I think we'll probably get Kaine. At least he's much better than Hillary or Jim Webb, who were the leading candidates for a while.
On the Republican side, I'm really hoping it's Romney. There's been a lot of stuff in the press about how McCain really dislikes him personally, so there's some chance that McCain will have some kind of blow-up, or that they just won't be able to work together. But more likely is that they'll work together fine, but the media will be writing a lot of stories about the fact that they don't like each other and McCain has a temper, speculating on whether they'll be able to work together, etc. It's just the kind of shallow story that the press loves obsessing over, and this time it'd be to the Democrats advantage. But I really don't see why McCain would pick Romney over Pawlenty - Massachusetts is not in play and Romney is a tool. Here's what I have to say about Pawlenty: he's pretty boring. Which makes him better than Romney, who is actively bad.
Two favorites are emerging in each party in the veepstakes: Tim Kaine and Evan Bayh for the Democrats and Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty for the Republicans. Kaine is at 36.5% and Bayh is at 23% on intrade.com (Kathleen Sebelius and Joe Biden are not too far back in third and fourth). On the Republican side, Romney (35%) and Pawlenty (34%) are well ahead of the pack.
I would love to see Bayh win, but Kaine would not be terrible. Both are from key swing states, although Bayh is more popular in Indiana than Kaine is in Virginia. The knock against Kaine is the same as the one against Obama - inexperience. He was inaugurated as mayor of Richmond in 1998, lieutenant governor of Virginia in 2002, and governor of Virginia in 2005.
Bayh, on the other hand, was elected governor of Indiana in 1988 and senate in 1998. So he has a reasonable amount of experience, but he's still young and vital-looking enough to make McCain look really old by comparison. Neither one is perfect policy-wise (Bayh was a big fan of the war in Iraq, although he has since said going to war was a mistake and Kaine is pro-life), but I would prefer to see Bayh. I think we'll probably get Kaine. At least he's much better than Hillary or Jim Webb, who were the leading candidates for a while.
On the Republican side, I'm really hoping it's Romney. There's been a lot of stuff in the press about how McCain really dislikes him personally, so there's some chance that McCain will have some kind of blow-up, or that they just won't be able to work together. But more likely is that they'll work together fine, but the media will be writing a lot of stories about the fact that they don't like each other and McCain has a temper, speculating on whether they'll be able to work together, etc. It's just the kind of shallow story that the press loves obsessing over, and this time it'd be to the Democrats advantage. But I really don't see why McCain would pick Romney over Pawlenty - Massachusetts is not in play and Romney is a tool. Here's what I have to say about Pawlenty: he's pretty boring. Which makes him better than Romney, who is actively bad.
posted by pokerschwab at 9:09 PM
1 Comments:
McCain would pick Romney for two reasons: 1) His father was an extremely popular governor from Michigan and polling shows that, with Romney, McCain could carry the state; 2) Romney can raise money, a weakness for McCain. The downside to Romney from the GOP point of view is that, even though he was the best funded, he was widely rejected during the primary. His LDS faith is also considered disqualifying among certain wings of his party.
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